Survey Note: Comprehensive Analysis of the Clutch Case in CS:GO

Introduction and Background

The Clutch Case, a weapon case in Counter-Strike: Global Offensive (CS:GO), was released on February 14, 2018, as part of the "Welcome to the Clutch" update Clutch Case - OKCSGO. It is notable for introducing a new set of glove finishes, following the initial Glove Case in 2016 and the Operation Hydra Case. As of March 9, 2025, data indicates it ranks 9th in daily openings with approximately 20,000 cases opened per day, based on recent tracking CS2 Case. This survey note provides a detailed analysis of its contents, opening probabilities, costs, expected returns, and market trends, aiming to inform players on its viability for case opening.

Case Contents

The Clutch Case contains 17 weapon skins and 24 glove finishes, categorized by rarity. The weapon skins are divided as follows:

The special rare items are 24 glove finishes, including high-value options like:

• Nine-Tailed Fox Gloves | Jungle
• Sport Gloves | Miami Vice
• Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web

These gloves are classified as "Exceedingly Rare" with a drop chance of 0.26%, making them highly sought after Clutch Case | Counter-Strike Wiki | Fandom.

Opening Probabilities

The probabilities for each rarity level are standardized for CS:GO cases, as outlined by Valve in 2017 CS2 Case Odds: The Official Numbers Published By Valve. They are:

• Mil-Spec: 79.92%
• Restricted: 15.98%
• Classified: 3.20%
• Covert: 0.64%
• Special rare items (gloves): 0.26%

Additionally, there is a 10% chance for any weapon skin to be a StatTrak™ version, increasing its rarity and value. The calculation logic shows that the ratio of special rare items (gloves) to Covert skins is 2:5, aligning with the given probabilities.

Cost to Open

The cost to open the Clutch Case includes the case price and the key price. Based on current market rates as of March 10, 2025:

• The case price on Steam is approximately $0.80.
• The key price is around $2.77.
• Total cost per opening: $3.57.

The user noted that third-party sites might sell the case for around $1.22, but for consistency, we use Steam prices.

Expected Value and Return Rate

The expected value (EV) of items from the Clutch Case is calculated based on the probability-weighted average of all possible drops. The user states the overall return rate is 39.94%, which likely means the EV is 39.94% of the cost ($3.57), or approximately $1.43. This implies:

• EV = 0.3994 * $3.57 ≈ $1.43
• Return on investment (ROI) = (EV - Cost) / Cost * 100% = ($1.43 - $3.57) / $3.57 * 100% ≈ -60.06%

This negative ROI indicates that, on average, opening the case results in a loss. The user notes that most items, especially Mil-Spec and Restricted skins, are low-value (e.g., a few dollars), and only Classified, Covert, and gloves can potentially break even or profit. For example:

• Mil-Spec skins like MP9 | Black Sand are worth a few dollars, often less than $1.
• Classified skins like AWP | Mortis can be around $50, offering small gains.
• Covert skins like M4A4 | Neo-Noir can reach several hundred dollars.
• Gloves like Sport Gloves | Miami Vice in Factory New condition can exceed $14,000 ★ Sport Gloves | Vice - OKCSGO, making them highly profitable if obtained.

Given the 0.26% chance for gloves, the likelihood of hitting such high-value items is low, aligning with the overall loss in expected value.

Market Trends and Price Stability

Market trends show that glove skins maintain their value well due to their rarity and demand. The Sport Gloves | Miami Vice is among the most valuable, with prices ranging from $543.67 to $14,690.13 depending on wear condition ★ Sport Gloves | Vice - OKCSGO. However, it's worth noting that other gloves, like Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze, can reach $37,000. Weapon skins like M4A4 | Neo-Noir can fluctuate with popular events or updates, but gloves generally hold steady, making them a stable investment for collectors.

Conclusion and Recommendations

The analysis reveals that the Clutch Case is not a profitable venture for most players, with an expected loss of about 60.06% per open. While the chance to obtain high-value gloves like Miami Vice exists, the probability is low (0.26%), and most outcomes result in losses. Players should approach opening with caution, setting a budget and avoiding excessive spending. The stable value of gloves makes them a potential long-term investment, but for short-term gains, buying desired skins directly may be more cost-effective.